



Market Recap: April 27 – May 1, 2026
Last week was defined by a unified pause from major central banks, reinforcing a cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy.
Central Banks Hold Rates
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.75% on Wednesday, in line with expectations as policymakers continue to assess inflation and labour market trends.
On Thursday, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England also left rates unchanged, at 2.00% and 3.75% respectively. The decisions reflect a shared reluctance to move too quickly toward rate cuts despite easing inflation.
Market Takeaway
The key message from last week: central banks remain in wait-and-see mode.
Markets continue to adjust expectations gradually, with incoming data—rather than policy shifts—driving price action.
Key Events to Watch: May 3 – May 7, 2026
US Employment Data (Wednesday, May 6)
The latest private sector employment figures are expected at +99K.
Markets will focus on:
Stronger data may support the US dollar, while weaker figures could bring forward rate cut expectations.
Eurozone Retail Sales (Thursday, May 7)
Forecast: +0.9% (previous: 1.7%)
Key focus:
A softer reading may weigh on the euro, while strength could offer support.
UK Outlook: Limited Data, External Drivers
With no major UK releases, focus shifts to:
Sterling is likely to be driven more by external developments, particularly US data.
Macro Theme: Geopolitics & Oil Markets
Ongoing Middle East tensions continue to influence markets:
Summary
Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England—held rates steady last week, reinforcing a cautious stance.
Attention now turns to US employment data and eurozone retail sales, while geopolitical risks remain a key wildcard.
Expect data-driven volatility, with markets reacting to surprises rather than major policy changes.
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