Currency Markets Navigate Rising Geopolitical Uncertainty

Publish Date

April 6, 2026

EUR

The euro had a subdued week, slipping slightly after inflation data showed price pressures ticking higher in Germany and across the bloc. Rising energy costs are starting to bite again, and that’s keeping the ECB uneasy. Growth signs remain soft, with business sentiment lagging, leaving little reason for optimism. Overall, the euro finished the week on the defensive, with investors unwilling to add exposure while the inflation path looks uncertain.

USD

The dollar extended its strength last week, helped by firm US labour data and ongoing geopolitical tension. Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations, confirming the economy’s resilience and reinforcing the case for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. Powell’s comments echoed that view, stressing caution rather than cuts. Safe‑haven demand stayed strong, and with no clear improvement in risk sentiment, the dollar remains the preferred play.

GBP

Sterling held steady but struggled to push higher. Retail sales beat forecasts, though the impact was limited as global risk aversion dominated flows. Geopolitical concerns early in the week capped gains, and despite the BoE’s supportive tone, GBP is finding it hard to build momentum. By Friday, the pound was little changed — a solid showing in tough conditions, but direction still dictated by wider market sentiment.

The week ahead

EUR

Eurozone retail sales on Wednesday will test how consumers are coping. Weak spending would confirm the growth drag, leaving the euro vulnerable, while any upside surprise could offer a short‑term lift. But with inflation picking up and policy trapped in limbo, the bias remains lower.

USD

Friday’s CPI data takes centre stage. A strong print would harden expectations for prolonged high rates, keeping the dollar supported. A softer reading might trigger profit‑taking, but given recent data strength and geopolitical tension, any pullback is likely to be shallow.

GBP

UK house prices on Wednesday are the main domestic event. Early signs point to stability following months of pressure. Balanced figures should keep GBP range‑bound, though another soft read could push the pound lower as markets refocus on safer assets.

Global Outlook

Geopolitical risks intensified after Iran warned of retaliation following President Trump’s Tuesday deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iranian power plants. Tehran rejected a US proposal for a temporary ceasefire, demanding a permanent end to the conflict, while Trumps 45‑day truce plan was labelled “a very significant step”.

Oil prices rose and safe‑haven demand strengthened as markets stayed risk‑averse. On the economic front, US data and Fed commentary remain in focus, with traders awaiting this week’s inflation figures for further policy cues.

‍

© 2026 Elev8 Group Limited. All rights reserved. Elev8® is a trademark of Elev8 Group Limited. Elev8 Group Limited is an unregulated foreign exchange brokerage and does not carry out regulated financial activities. Foreign exchange and payment services are facilitated through our regulated liquidity and payment partners where applicable. Testimonials and case studies shared on our website reflect individual customer experiences. Results may vary depending on personal circumstances.
‍
Payment and e-money services are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: 1 Sheldon Square, London, W2 6TT, United Kingdom. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199). You can find Currencycloud's Terms of Use here: https://www.currencycloud.com/legal/terms/
‍
Payment services in the United States are provided by Visa Global Services Inc. (VGSI), a licensed money transmitter (NMLS ID 181032) in the states listed - https://usa.visa.com/legal/visa-global-services-licenses.html. VGSI is licensed as a money transmitter by the New York Department of Financial Services. Mailing address: 900 Metro Center Blvd, Mailstop 1Z, Foster City, CA 94404. VGSI is also a registered Money Services Business ("MSB") with FinCEN and a registered Foreign MSB with FINTRAC. For live customer support contact VGSI at (888) 733-0041
For clients based in the European Economic Area, the issuance of e-money and the provision of related payment services for Elev8 Group Limited are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V. CurrencyCloud B.V. is registered with the Dutch Chamber of Commerce in the Netherlands under number 72186178. Registered office Mr. Treublaan 7, 1097 DP, Amsterdam, Netherlands. CurrencyCloud B.V. is licensed and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank as an Electronic Money Institution (Relation Number: R142701).
‍
Payment services for Elev8 Group are provided by Sciopay Ltd. Sciopay Ltd is a company incorporated in England & Wales. Registration No: 12352935. Sciopay Ltd is licensed and regulated by HMRC as a Money Service Business (MSB). License No: XCML00000151326. Sciopay Ltd is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority as an Authorised Payment Institution. Firm Reference Number: 927951
‍
Elev8 Group's payment and foreign exchange services are provided by Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd. T/A GC Partners. Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations, 2017 (FRN: 504346). Registered as a Money Services Business, supervised by HM Revenue & Customs (“HMRC”) under the Money Laundering Regulations 2017. (Registered number is 12137189). Registered in England and Wales, company number 04675786. Registered office: 85 London Wall, London, EC2M 7AD.
Payment Services are provided by Equals Connect Limited, registered in England and Wales (registered no. 07131446). Registered Office: Vintners' Place, 68 Upper Thames St, London, EC4V 3BJ. Equals Connect Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide payment services (FRN: 671508).

Elev8 Exchange Group 2026

Currency Markets Navigate Rising Geopolitical Uncertainty

Heading 1

Heading 2

Heading 3

Heading 4

Heading 5

Heading 6

Get Started